作者
徐婉容* (中央銀行經濟研究處)

Author
Wan-Jung Hsu^* (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan))

中文摘要
通膨與失業率之間的抵換關係是貨幣政策的核心議題。本文參考 Barnichon and Mesters (2021) 所提出之菲利浦乘數 (Phillips multiplier)，以衡量通膨與失業率之間的中長期抵換關係，並探討其在不同通膨環境下的非線性變化。實證結果顯示，菲利浦乘數明顯受通膨環境所影響：高通膨環境下呈顯著負值，顯示通膨與失業率間存在顯著抵換關係；而低通膨環境中則接近零且不顯著，反映貨幣政策效果較受限制。進一步以衝擊反應分析發現，菲利浦乘數的非線性效果主要來自通膨在不同狀態下反應幅度的變化。從影響通膨的管道做進一步拆解，我們發現通膨預期的定錨程度是造成菲利浦乘數非線性的關鍵因素：高通膨時，通膨轉嫁至通膨預期的程度較高，增強通膨與失業率之間的負向抵換關係；低通膨時，通膨預期較穩固，轉嫁程度較不顯著，使得該抵換關係較小。考量當前臺灣可能處於通膨狀態轉換期，本文研究結果可作為央行貨幣政策的參考依據。

Abstract
Inflation–unemployment trade-offs are central to monetary policy. Following Barnichon and Mesters (2021), this research uses the Phillips Multiplier to examine the medium- to long-run trade-offs between inflation and unemployment under different inflation regimes. The results show that the multiplier is significantly negative in high-inflation regimes, indicating a clear trade-off, but close to zero and insignificant in low-inflation regimes, suggesting weaker monetary policy effects. Impulse response analysis further presents that this nonlinearity mainly reflects differences in inflation responses across regimes. Decomposition results indicate that inflation expectations play a key role: when inflation is high, stronger pass-through to expectations reinforces the trade-off; when inflation is low, better-anchored expectations weaken it. The findings of this paper offer useful implications for monetary policy in Taiwan.

中文關鍵字
菲利浦乘數、通膨狀態、貨幣政策、衝擊反應

Keywords
Phillips Multiplier, Inflation Regimes, Monetary Policy, Impulse Responses